IHS Jane's Afghanistan Analysis: 2011 Will Be Key Test of Whether Allied Mission Can Prevail

LONDON (May 20, 2011) – Developments in Afghanistan are at a critical juncture and could make the 2011 fighting season the crucial test for the future of the allied mission in Afghanistan, according to a new analysis in IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly by Editor, Peter Felstead, who recently returned from the warfront.

The report, based on more than a dozen interviews with key International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) officials and visits to ISAF headquarters in Kabul, the ISAF base at Kabul International Airport, Kandahar Air Field and others, appears in the May 25 issue of Jane’s Defence Weekly.

Key Highlights:

Holding on to Territory and Momentum

Securing the past year’s strategic gains, such as the taking of Kandahar and the Central Helmand River Valley, will be key as the newly-commenced 2011 fighting season heats up.

“For once [the insurgent] has now got to do something to reverse the momentum,” Major General Michael Krause, Deputy Chief of Staff in charge of planning at the ISAF Joint Command in Afghanistan told Felstead. “That’s not a bad position to be in.”

The Taliban began ramping up attacks and operations in recent weeks—capped off with the audacious jail break of 541 Taliban prisoners from a Kandahar City jail on April 24—while allied forces look to hold on to the newly-won territory.

“If we’re able to do that for a fighting season, we think that could be close to a game-changer,” Krause said.

Training Afghan Forces Mission Critical

Much of the success of the ISAF mission in Afghanistan depends on the success of the NATO training mission charged with building the Afghan army and police. The NATO Training Mission – Afghanistan (NTM-A) comprises just three percent of ISAF’s total strength but its job has become mission critical, Felstead writes. The training mission made substantial gains in 2010 but its goal for 2011 is daunting. 64,700 new recruits will need to be trained by October 31, 2011 if the Afghan forces are to reach their full mandated strength.

Interestingly, one of the training missions greatest obstacles—Afghan illiteracy—is also one of its strongest selling points, Felstead says. In a country where education all but disappeared for decades, it is a powerful recruiting tool.

“Literacy is one of the most powerful weapons we have against the Taliban,” one officer tells Felstead. “The recruits take it as a gift.”

Solving “The Pakistan Enigma”

Success and failure in Afghanistan remains inextricably linked to the security situation in Pakistan, a relationship that has been exasperated by the recent revelation that Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was found and killed in the Pakistani town of Abbottabad.

Military officials tell Felstead that support for extremists coming from Pakistan remains rooted in a “lens that is focused on India.”

“What I would say from an operation point of view is: ‘Can I achieve my plan without a game change in Pakistan?’ And the answer to that is ‘Yes, we can, but it will be much harder,” General Krause said.

Note to Editors:

Peter Felstead is available for interviews from London. For media inquiries and interview requests please contact:

Jeff Marn
Senior Manager - Public Relations
IHS
Direct +1 202 463 8213
Mobile +1 202 560 0776
jeff.marn@ihs.com

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